Here are the 5 highlights of Diksha Yadav’s podcast What does that mean with Venu Gopal Narayanan, where he explains in detail how Christians, Hindus and Muslims in Kerala vote. (Listen, click here for SpotifyAnd here for Swarajya app).
1. What influences Christian votes in Kerala
For a very long time, for many decades in fact, the Christian vote was for the Congress party, either directly or for the last 40 to 50 years in alliance with a Christian party in Kerala called the Kerala Congress and they had the used to be very successful in this field. the Christian-majority belts of Kerala, election after election.
But in 2020, the Kerala Congress switched its allegiance from the Congress to the Communists, which helped the Left win the 2020 local body elections and achieve the unthinkable: winning a second term in the 2021 assembly elections.
Prior to this and throughout this period until early 2023, the BJP had carried out sporadic outreach to the Christian community and there had always been certain pockets who responded in a very nationalistic manner. But it was only from the beginning of 2023 that the Christian influence of the BJP gained resonance and scale.
Prime Minister Modi met with the bishops last year and more recently this year around Christmas. There have been many instances of Christian candidates contesting on a BJP ticket in Kerala and, in rare cases, retaining their deposits as well. This time we have Anil Anthony, the son of former Congressman AK Anthony, as the candidate from Pathanamtheta in the south.
In Kerala, there is a very strong symbiotic relationship between the Church and its followers. I call this the economy of secularism for lack of a better expression, but there is a lot of commercial exchange between the Church and its faithful in the form of trade, overseas opportunities and benefits in matter of education, which means that the average Christian is dependent on the church, grateful to the church for the help he or she receives and the normal tendency is that you do not cross the church.
This means that if the Kerala Congress, which is a Christian party supported by the Church of Kerala, is now on the side of the communists, then one would expect a larger portion of Kerala’s Christians to vote for the communists.
2. Hindu votes in Kerala
The sad truth is that the Hindu community in Kerala is not unified. The majority of Hindus in Kerala belong to the so-called Other Backward Castes (OBC). And the majority of the OBC community in Kerala, which is the dominant Hindu community, are die-hard loyalists of the communists and have been for almost a century now.
Upper caste Brahmins and Nairs supported the Congress, especially during the freedom struggle and for the next few decades. The Congress is by and large a Nair party for all intents and purposes.
But with secularism eclipsing everything else on the Congress front, upper-caste Hindus became disillusioned and, at the turn of this century, began voting increasingly for the BJP.
So you now find yourself in a situation where a majority of Hindus vote for the Left, a portion votes for the BJP and a small section of that upper caste still votes for the Congress.
So, the kind of supra-caste consolidation that the BJP managed to achieve so magnificently across the country almost, it was not able to do in Kerala. And I fear the reasons are economic and not caste or class.
Kerala operates as a remittance economy, receiving money mainly from the Gulf, and increasingly from North America and Europe. People tend to vote on the basis of family traditions, thereby securing their social status and access to influential circles, where the BJP is not prominent at any state level. You need to know which side of your bread is buttered, so to speak.
3. Do the Modi wave and Ram Mandir have less impact on Kerala politics than in the rest of India?
This is the ultimate irony, as Kerala is the only state in the country where the second monsoon month is called the Ramayana month, during which Hindus read the Malayalam translation of the Ramayana. We call it the Adhyatma Ramayana by Thunjath Ezhuthachan.
Even today, rich or poor, secular or not, they read this Adhyatma Ramayanam with great devotion and piety. Unfortunately, because of what I call the economy of secularism, this progress has not yet taken place.
4. What factors influence Muslim votes in Kerala, and why has the IUML petitioned the Congress for a third Lok Sabha seat – Wayanad?
The IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) is not part of the Congress. The Congress is part of the IUML in Kerala. Asking for a third seat was part of the negotiation process. Because they (IUML) truly believed that they deserved the third seat in Kerala.
Partly because the majority of the Christian vote turned to the communists. So who is there with Congress? The Muslim vote. And it’s still there, but there’s a flow.
Over the last two years, the Communists have been assiduously courting Muslims by saying, “Look, your Congress party is not going to form a government in Delhi in the near future. Why don’t you join? Let’s work together.’
And there is history since, in the 1960s, the Muslim League allied itself with the communists under the command of EMS Namboodiripad. So it’s not like this hasn’t happened before. As a result, a section of the Muslim community in Kerala now strongly believes that they are probably better off with the Left because, at least then, they get some of the power.
But then who is concerned? Congress. And I see this in Ernakulam, Cochin city, today. One of the top leaders of the IUML, a district leader, has been suspended from office.
A section of the Muslim League is demanding local elections to re-elect a new member rather than an appointment. So there’s a lot of flow going on. Let’s see how this plays out over the next couple of months, but it’s not great, except in Wayanad, where I think if Rahul Gandhi runs, he should do well.
5. What’s next for the BJP in Kerala after the 2024 elections?
Malayalis are pragmatists. They are still waiting for the right reason to vote for the BJP, and it is up to the BJP to give them one or more reasons. Emotional talk won’t work here. It has to be an economic speech.
The BJP must find economic reasons why the people of Kerala should vote for it. It has to be a central initiative, because a state unit will not be able to impose it. This will have to come from the center, and the first test of this should be the local polls, scheduled for the end of next year.
This must be their first test. They need to broaden their framework. In some seats like Alathur and Vadakara, the BJP must, if necessary, appeal to central assistance, protect itself against political intimidation and start expanding its cadre and areas. Otherwise, its growth will remain slow.
PS We also look seat by seat and explain in which areas the BJP can increase its vote share in 2024. Listen to 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰—𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗿 Pod cast 𝗕𝗝𝗣 𝗜𝗻 𝗞𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗮. Full episode here.
