Ahead of the South Carolina primary on Saturday, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley held a news conference to tell supporters she’s “not going anywhere” and that she is committed to offering voters an alternative to former President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, her presidential rival, who is 2-1 lead in his home state — spoke at an evangelical conference in Nashville, touting his record on issues important to conservative Christians during his first term and pledging to continue his tenure in his second mandate.
Trump promised 1,500 attendees at the National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) convention that despite threats from the left, “no one will touch the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you.”
“Christian voters had a good relationship with Nikki and they liked Nikki, but they love her. love Trump,” said Chad Connelly, who was at the NRB rally.
The South Carolina native and former two-term chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party is the founder of the conservative Christian organization Faith Wins, which involves 16,000 pastors in evangelical voter registration.
Connelly said what he hears most from religious leaders is that Trump “did what he said he was going to do…he’s a rare politician.” This is comment number one.
Specific policies come up more than others: Trump released a list of potential Supreme Court nominees in 2016, then named three conservative justices to the Court, along with his relocation of the American embassy in Israel in Jerusalem.
But more than any particular list of issues motivating this election, multiple sources have described a deep sense of personal loyalty that Republican primary voters feel toward Trump, a feeling that has intensified with his legal troubles.
“People had the impression that these were political hit jobs,” Connelly said. “These things help him in the strangest ways. I wouldn’t have predicted it. But they absolutely help him. This created fervor and excitement. … I’ve never seen (this) depth of support and enthusiasm.
In 2016, white evangelicals scattered their votes in South Carolina’s Republican primaries: Trump received 34 percent of the vote, Sen. Ted Cruz gained 26 percent, and Marco Rubio gained 21 percent. Political observers do not expect a big divide this time.
“There are evangelicals in South Carolina who are somewhat wary of Trump and probably support Nikki Haley, or will support Trump reluctantly,” Tony Beam, director of church engagement at North Greenville University and political director of the South Carolina Baptist Convention, known as CT. “But I would say the most important group is the one that will probably be pretty solidly behind Trump for the primary and for the presidency.”
The state has many “evangelicals in name only” who are staunch Trump supporters, Beam said. But others areto church every Sunday, I’m on committees, I’m serious about my faith– believers of the type who believe Trump is the answer.
Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, has noticed tensions within churches, although she thinks enthusiasm for Trump is more uniform in rural churches than in their urban and suburban counterparts.
At her evangelical church, she has sometimes been “very mystified by the little old ladies who completely rationalize Trump, but they do it,” she said. “But I noticed a small handful of very vocal opponents of Trump in these same congregations. So it’s not a universal love, but I also think there’s more enthusiasm than you might find in other parts of the country.
More notable divisions may be along socio-economic lines.
“I think South Carolina has more of what we traditionally think of as evangelical voters,” Nicholas Higgins, chair of the political science department at North Greenville University, told CT. “I just think the information will be less useful because it will be mixed with other types of groups.”
Higgins has observed that in his conversations with students or professors, there is sometimes a marked preference for Haley over Trump. But when he speaks with blue-collar workers at his church or elsewhere, he notices greater support for Trump.
It’s not omnipresent, he says, but it’s more stark than religious divisions: “I find that higher-educated Christians tend to support Haley, lower-educated Christians tend to to support Trump. Higher education secularists tend to support Haley, lower education secularists tend to support Trump. I think that’s where you see more variation.
The reason Haley prevailed, despite defeats, is rumored to be the possibility of an upset in the race due to her rival’s pending issues in state and federal courts. Trump faces 91 counts in two state courts and two federal districts, as well as a civil suit in New York.
Some states have also filed complaints using an obscure provision of the 14th Amendment to argue a legal theory that Trump is ineligible to appear on the 2024 ballot because of his role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. It’s unclear exactly how they will rule, although the judges seemed skeptical during arguments earlier this month that the state could exclude Trump from the Colorado ballot.
“It will be almost impossible for Haley to mobilize enough to stop Trump from getting the majority of delegates,” Higgins said. But he said his strategy could still be to be the next highest delegate holder to prove viable, in case Trump’s legal troubles take him out of the race.
She may be hoping, Higgins says, that “the other side will have to forfeit.” And so, coming second, getting the silver medal, and then finding out the gold medal winner required a stack of performance-enhancing drugs – you get the gold medal.
Former state Rep. Garry Smith told CT he’s hearing from Christian friends who are forgoing political involvement for the time being. “There is a lot of confusion in the Church,” he said. But as November approaches, he believes tensions will dissipate between the different wings of the Republican Party to “focus more on the goal, which is electing the party’s candidates.”
Chip Felkel, a South Carolina native who grew up in what he described as a “deep water” Southern Baptist church and now attends a Methodist church, said he has difficulty recognizing evangelical circles and republicans in which he grew up.
“I will never fully understand the connection between the evangelical community and Donald Trump,” Felkel told CT. “The evangelical community, he is their champion.”
“Within the Trump party, he is compared to King David. Some even go as far as a Second Coming, and I know that’s extreme, but I’ve heard and read of cases where people believe he is anointed by God to direct their efforts,” Felkel said.
He has worked for several Republican campaigns in South Carolina and is a longtime conservative GOP consultant. He is not associated with any campaign this cycle.
But Felkel — along with other white Christian voters who are skeptical of former President Donald Trump — are expected to be in the minority in South Carolina’s Republican primaries this weekend.
“Look, I mean, Trump is going to win big here. There’s no doubt about it,” Felkel said.
After South Carolina, Michigan hosts its contest on February 27.
The next milestone in the election will be Super Tuesday, which will take place on March 5. Fifteen states will vote and the result will represent 874 of the 2,429 Republicans needed. delegates. While it won’t be enough for Trump to win the nomination, Super Tuesday will likely be Haley’s last chance to prove her viability.
