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A recent Pew research report measuring religion in China suggests that Christianity in the country has stagnated and may even be in decline. But to borrow from Mark Twain, such suggestions seem greatly exaggerated. In fact, many of us who advocate for the cause of persecuted Christians around the world believe that the Christian community in China might even grow.
According to the latest Pew Research report, approximately 23.3 million adults in China identified as Christian in 2010. That number fell to 19.9 million in 2018. That represents a drop of nearly 3.5 million Christians in less than a decade.
This is an incredibly high figure that may even seem plausible to those of us who have followed the multifaceted anti-Christian campaign waged by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during this period. China believes it is winning the war against Christianity and this Pew Research report gives the CCP hope.
According to our own internal research at Global Christian Relief, Pew’s number could be less than 100 million, but no one really knows their size. What China is currently doing is pushing the Church underground, forcing believers to self-censor in an environment that has little influence. The situation has worsened under President Xi Jinping.
Restrictions against religious worship have increased since Xi Jinping became president. FILE: Chinese President Xi greets during an event to introduce new members of the Politburo Standing Committee at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, file)
It is important to recognize that the Pew report analyzes data from a variety of sources, including data collected and compiled by the Chinese government itself. For this reason, we can be cautious about the complete reliability of this data.
After all, the CCP has been trying to suppress Christianity and religious beliefs in the name of Marxism for years, and the government has a spotty record when it comes to honestly disclosing uncomfortable facts about religious life inside. of its borders.
All of this information is important because the survey data is based on self-censorship. The data is based on what respondents are willing to admit, but Chinese Christians know they may be persecuted for their answers.
Christians in China therefore have every interest in not revealing their true identity. Perhaps this is why Pew openly admits the possibility that there may be “limitations in survey and government data” and says that “some analyzes make adjustments” to account for these issues.
There are other significant facts that also give us pause. Christians in China tend to cluster in various regions and villages and are not evenly distributed geographically. If some of the more Christian cities like Wenzhou were excluded from the survey, for example, it would have a noticeable impact on the data. While Pew acknowledges that all areas of the country may not have been proportionally sampled, it certainly gives us reason to be cautious about drawing sweeping conclusions.
The methodology used by the Chinese government to count the number of Christians between 1949 and 2018 has changed significantly over time, making it difficult to compare more recent statistics with figures collected decades ago.
For example, the government did not specify whether children were included in the total number of Christians. It is also unclear whether the changes in the figures are due to new converts or a recategorization including Christians who previously practiced in unregistered churches.
For years, the Chinese Communist Party has imposed restrictions on the free practice of the Christian faith within its borders. These restrictions have only increased since Xi became president and de facto leader of the CCP. The CCP actively promotes atheism, claiming that religion is only a temporary societal phenomenon that will disappear over time.
Fear of government reprisals makes it difficult to know whether Christianity is truly in decline in China. FILE: A choir sings during a rehearsal for a performance marking the Chinese New Year at a country church on February 21, 2007, in Luoyang, Henan province, China. (Photo by China Photos/Getty Images)
Watchdog groups and religious freedom organizations like Global Christian Relief, which I lead, continue to report that Christian communities are thriving in many parts of China, but they often remain underground.
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The government tightened controls on Christian activities outside registered venues, banned foreigners from disseminating religious content online, and cracked down on house churches. It is a safe bet that Christians who exist in these secret communities are not taken into account in government investigations.
Given the hostile anti-Christian environment in China, why would Chinese citizens feel safe sharing their honest thoughts and beliefs about religion? According to analysts at Global Christian Relief and our many contacts on the ground in China, only about one in five people self-declare.
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Given everything we know about the situation in China and the data Pew relies on, we can only conclude that we do not have an accurate picture of the true size and scope of the Christian community in China. At best, we could say that after decades of rapid growth, the growth of Christianity in China may be slowing.
It’s easy to believe the latest grim reports, which dominate the headlines. But the truth is that those of us who wish to see a growing and thriving Christian presence in China have no compelling reason to despair and perhaps even rejoice.
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