A.on DeSantis’ presidential campaign could have finished Sunday, on Jan. 21, but whatever competition Trump may have faced for the hearts of white evangelical voters ended months ago. Maybe the “competition” is too generous. In survey After survey, Trump maintained a double-digit lead over his rivals among white evangelicals. Still, there were glimmers of hope about the vulnerability of Trump’s evangelical support, particularly among the most fervent.
But they were just flickers.
In March 2023, psychologist Joshua Grubbs and I asked a national sample of Americans who they planned to vote for in the next presidential election. Among white evangelical voters who identified as Republican, 53% said they would vote for Trump while 31% favored DeSantis. Less than 1% said they would vote for Joe Biden. In other words, more than a year before Republicans had to choose their presidential candidate, Trump already enjoyed majority support from white evangelicals.
Yet when we split the sample based on church attendance, we found that only 48% of white evangelical Republicans who attend at least once a month planned to vote for Trump, compared to 61% of those who attend less than once a month. DeSantis’ support remained around 31% in both cases (the gains were mostly attributed to Mike Pence dropping out in October), but Trump enjoyed less dominance among the most fervent. Other polls Around this time, it was also suggested that evangelical support for Trump might be faltering. Glimmers of hope for potential rivals.
But by late fall 2023, white evangelicals were uniting around Trump again. When Pew Research Center When white evangelical Republican voters were asked about their primary preferences, 55% said they would vote for Trump. And above all, this percentage was identical among those who go to church at least once a month and among the least frequent faithful. DeSantis enjoyed greater support among monthly loyalists (21% vs. 13%), but the 17% lead Trump enjoyed among the most fervent in spring 2023 had doubled to 34% 9 months later.
Learn more: The surprising voters who led Trump to victory
What changed? Has Trump started courting white evangelicals again like in 2016? Not really. In fact, Trump didn’t do much public appearances not at all compared to other GOP primary candidates, and very little on the Christian Right circuit. Have white evangelical thought leaders started campaigning for Trump in earnest over the past year? Again, not really. Bangs far-right pastors never left him. But a number of prominent evangelicals leaders, authorsAnd pastorssome of whom had previously supported Trump, publicly supported DeSantis.
Rather than focusing on everything Trump or evangelical leaders have done to solidify evangelical support for Trump, there are two more likely explanations.
The first is that white evangelicals, especially the most devout ones, are life-or-death advocates. The more white evangelical voters attend church, the more likely they are to identify as Republican. For example, when I analyze data from the Pew Research Center US Trends Panel Survey, Wave 114I find that less than 48% of white evangelical voters who “never” go to church are Republican, while nearly 73% of those who go more than once a week identify that way.
Trump is now the Republican Party. And so, while a minority of devout white evangelicals might have considered other policy options a year before the primaries were decided, as Trump’s victory became more inevitable, all of the most committed reluctant supporters lined up. Even when evangelical theologian Wayne Grudem called on Trump to give up the race, he did not oppose Trump (whom he praised). Rather, he simply thought Trump would lose to Biden. The issue was party victory, not principle.
The second reason evangelicals have rallied behind Trump again is that they are not only supporters but also culture warriors who always feel under attack. And despite DeSantis’ best efforts to portray himself as anti-woke, there’s no excuse, warrior of religious conservatives, the majority of evangelicals either never bought it or simply had more faith in Trump as a warrior king. As a journalist Tim Alberta described the white evangelical mentality, “The barbarians are at the gates, and we need a barbarian to keep them at bay.” Trump is nothing but a convincing barbarian.
We shouldn’t exaggerate a rivalry that didn’t exist. Trump was always the evangelical favorite even among the most devout. He was the favorite among white evangelicals, regardless of their church attendance, well before the primaries were decided in January 2016. Even then, Pew data showed that white evangelicals at all levels were more enthusiastic about his potential as president.
Trump has white evangelicals in his pocket. Whatever cognitive dissonance some devout Christians may feel in supporting a two-time serial liar who attempted to stage a coup and threatened violence against political opponents is easily dismissed with the belief that no Republican candidate, no matter how problematic, could be worse than losing. to a Democrat.
Understand America’s religion of bigoted partisanship and culture war and you’ll see why white evangelicals will always fall in line. Like Nikki Haley is relearning.
